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How climate change is forcing farmers to adapt

Climate change is transforming the way we farm. Unpredictable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns are bringing drought, heatwaves and flooding. And as extreme weather becomes more frequent across Australia and around the world, crop failure from climate change is emerging as a real food security threat.

But amid these challenges, the farming sector is doing what it does best: innovating. Across paddocks, greenhouses, and research labs, innovation is reshaping crop production in the face of escalating climate challenges. From precision irrigation to climate-smart crops, the sector is adapting to protect yields, reduce risk, and build a more resilient food future.

The climate crisis and its impact on agriculture

From Australia’s Murray Darling Basin to California’s Central Valley, the relationship between climate change and crop yields is becoming increasingly pronounced. Cropping systems must adapt in real-time to shifting climate pressures – navigating both weather extremes and ecological disruption.

Here are the key ways climate change is impacting crop production in Australia and around the world:

Erratic and extreme weather patterns

Globally, one of the clearest signals of climate change in agriculture is increased volatility in our weather. The traditional cues farmers once relied on (seasonal rains, temperature windows, frost-free periods) are shifting. For grain growers in Australia’s southern states, multi-year rainfall deficits are becoming the new normal, with annual totals below average for 17 of the last 20 years.

While El Nino and other natural climate cycles play a role, the frequency, intensity, duration and geographic extent of extreme weather is increasing. Globally, NASA research shows a dramatic rise in intensity of extreme weather events over the past five years.

Insight: Volatility, not “average conditions” is becoming a key variable shaping crop strategy.

Crop failures and decreased yield

Farmers have traditionally relied on skill, timing, and innovation to lift yield, but climate change is challenging that equation. Global modelling suggests that for every 1°C rise in temperature, yields of key staples like maize, soy, rice, and wheat may fall enough to cut global food availability by 120 calories per person, per day.

In Australia, broadacre farm productivity growth has slowed, and become increasingly volatile. From 2000 to 2020, the average annual growth rate was 0.72%, down from 2.18% in the 1980s and 1990s.

Despite efficiency gains, profits are being eroded. ABARES estimates that higher temperatures and declining winter rainfall have reduced annual average broadacre farm profits by 23%.

Insight: Even as farmers become more efficient, returns are diminishing – highlighting the limits of business as usual.

Water scarcity

In a dry continent like Australia, water has always been a limiting factor in agricultural production. But climate change is exacerbating that.

Only 0.5 per cent of water on Earth is useable freshwater. And globally, land-based water storage has dropped by 1 cm per year over the past 20 years, with implications for food security.

In some regions, irrigation offers a safety net against dry periods, but the availability of irrigation water is no longer a constant. 40% of Australian farms are within the Murray-Darling Basin, but increasing demands are putting water security under threat. In California, over-extraction of groundwater has caused land subsidence, where the ground gradually sinks, threatening critical infrastructure.

Insight: Water is emerging as the hard limit on production, accelerating the shift toward efficient irrigation, water recycling, and drought-resilient systems.

Long-term effects on ecosystems

Climate change impact on crop yield is not just down to rainfall and heat – it’s about the ecological systems that underpin crop production. Shifting weather patterns are accelerating soil degradation, expanding the range and activity of pests, and changing the relationship between crops and pollinators.

In cropping regions, farmers are seeing:

Insight: As ecosystem services decline, farmers must rely more on synthetic inputs – increasing their costs while impacting system resilience.

Climate change farming adaptation: Ways farmers are innovating

Across Australia, producers are responding with creativity and shifts in practice. Enabled by R&D, market signals, and industry-led problem-solving, these climate change adaptation strategies are helping growers protect crop yields and plan for an uncertain future.

Climate change-resistant crops

Developing climate change-resistant crops is central to safeguarding food production. Plant breeders are working on cultivars that tolerate heat, drought, salinity, and emerging diseases, without sacrificing quality or yield.

RELATED: The race to breed heat tolerant wheat for a hotter, hungrier world

RELATED: The rising potential of Australian perennial wheat 

Diversification strategies

Diversity builds resilience in agricultural systems. By mixing crops, rotating pastures, and integrating livestock and agroforestry, farmers are improving soil health, mitigating climate risk, and boosting ecological function for the long-term.

RELATED: Agriculture’s role as a vital climate solution

Precision agriculture technology

Tools like yield maps, drones, remote sensing, and soil sensors are helping producers make smarter, faster decisions that optimise farm inputs and reduce costs.

RELATED: Agronomeye: The 360-view to help farmers turbocharge business

RELATED: How the drive for more sustainable production is bringing growers tailored solutions

Smart irrigation systems

Smart irrigation is a first line of defence against water scarcity. Soil moisture sensors and remote monitoring solutions help farmers deliver just the right amount of water, just when it is needed.

RELATED: All aboard to new opportunities; what CropX’s first Australian acquisition means for agrifood tech

Regenerative farming practices

Regenerative farming – cover cropping, reduced tillage, and compost application – is helping growers restore soil carbon, enhance fertility, and reduce reliance on synthetic inputs.

These practices are also aligning with the expectations of food companies and financiers seeking climate strategies that deliver in the paddock.

RELATED: Promising regenerative agriculture: will global food giants meet their climate targets?

Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA)

In regions hit hardest by extreme heat, drought, or hail, controlled environment agriculture is reshaping what’s possible for food production. From glasshouses to vertical farms, CEA systems provide year-round growing conditions (consistent temperature, humidity, and moisture) regardless of what’s happening outside.

RELATED: More than just office yoga: Farmwall’s fresh approach to scope 3 emissions

Farmer-led data sharing and collaboration

Cultural change is also driving adaptation. Agricultural industries, producers and supply chain partners are collaborating more: joining extension networks, contributing data to climate tools, and co-developing climate smart solutions with researchers and startups.

RELATED: When agtechs work together for beef producers, one plus one can equal three

Adapting to climate change through innovation

The link between climate change and agricultural productivity is clear, but so too is the sector’s response. From regenerative crop production in New South Wales to tomato greenhouses in South Australia’s desert, farmers are rising to their biggest challenge with creativity, technology, and determination.

Want to learn more about how farming is adapting to climate change? Explore the latest innovation and insight at evokeAG.

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