Why climate change inaction is a threat to Australian agriculture
Climate change is no longer a theoretical risk to Australian agriculture. It’s an economic and operational challenge for today’s producers. Across farming systems, the effects of climate variability are already shaping productivity, land values, and long-term viability. Climate change inaction compounds these pressures, increasing exposure to the impacts of a changing climate (such as water scarcity, heat stress, and extreme weather) while narrowing the window for effective adaptation.
Australia has warmed, on average, by 1.51°C since national records began in 1910. Most years are now warmer than almost any observed during the 20th century. Rainfall patterns are becoming more variable and extreme events more frequent.
These shifts are now starting to affect farm performance, workforce safety, and the resilience of food and fibre systems. In this context, the cost of climate change inaction is not tomorrow’s problem; it’s being borne across the agricultural sector today.
Related article: How climate change is forcing farmers to adapt
Tangible impacts of climate change on Australian agriculture
Climate inaction accelerates exposure to a range of physical and economic impacts across Australian farming systems.
Reduced rainfall and water availability
Declining (and increasingly variable) rainfall reduces the amount of water available for crop production and livestock systems. In the south-west of Australia, there has been a decrease of around 16% in cool season rainfall since 1970, while the south-east of Australia has seen a cool season rainfall decrease of around 9% since 1994. In regions that are already water-constrained, this limits production options and makes seasonal planning more complex.
Rising temperatures
Warmer average temperatures contribute to more frequent extreme heat events over land and in the oceans. For agriculture, that means longer and more intense droughts, a longer (and more severe) fire season, and increased threat of heat stress on animals. These conditions reduce productivity, affect reproductive performance, and pose animal welfare concerns — directly impacting farm profitability.
Increased climate volatility and extreme events
More frequent floods, fires, and heatwaves disrupt planting schedules, damage infrastructure, and increase recovery costs. Climate volatility makes seasonal outcomes less predictable, amplifying the cost of climate inaction across farm balance sheets.
Elevated CO₂ and altered crop performance
Rising atmospheric CO₂ alters the fundamental carbon, nitrogen, and water processes that underpin soil and plant function, altering crop growth patterns.
For many crops common in broadacre farming systems, higher CO₂ levels can actually increase growth rates and water-use efficiency. But potential gains are likely offset by the higher incidence of pests, lower nutritional content, more frequent heatwaves, and drought conditions.
Agricultural worker health and safety
Higher average temperatures, prolonged heatwaves, and more frequent extreme weather events are reshaping the physical conditions of agricultural work. These conditions increase the risk of heat stress and safety incidents, disrupt labour availability during critical production windows, and raise operational costs through reduced productivity, additional safety measures, and scheduling delays.
Related article: Climate change’s effects on farming and agriculture
Innovation as a response to climate risk in Australian farming
Responding to climate risk is becoming central to farm economics and operational decision-making. Innovation (across on-farm technologies, applied research, and supportive policy settings) will determine how well Australian agriculture manages climate change while securing productivity.
Related article: Agriculture’s role as a vital climate solution
The role of agtech and on-farm innovation
No longer just optional productivity add-ons, agtech solutions such as precision agriculture, remote sensing, and data analytics are becoming critical tools for managing climate variability. By improving visibility over soil moisture, pasture condition, crop performance, and input efficiency, these tools help farmers respond earlier to climate stress, and make more informed decisions even in uncertain operating conditions.
Related article: The future of farming & agriculture: Technologies
The importance of agricultural research
Applied agricultural research underpins the development of climate-resilient crops, improved soil management practices, and farming systems better suited to variable conditions. Continued investment is essential to ensure that innovation keeps pace with changing climate realities and can be adopted at scale. Without a strong research pipeline, adaptation options narrow over time, increasing reliance on short-term fixes rather than system-level resilience.
Policy settings that enable adaptation
Policy settings play an important role in determining whether adaptation and innovation occur at the pace we need to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. Clear frameworks, targeted incentives, and long-term policy certainty reduce risk for farm businesses and investors, enabling capital to flow into technologies and practices that manage climate exposure. Inconsistent or unclear policy settings, by contrast, deter investment, compounding the cost of climate change inaction across the sector.
Why climate inaction is dangerous for agriculture
If current climate trends continue without meaningful adaptation, climate change is likely to put growing pressure on Australia’s food and farming systems. Projected on-farm impacts are likely to include:
- heat stress reducing crop yields
- poorer pasture and livestock performance
- fruit sunburn
- reduced flowering in cool-night crops
- shorter growing seasons
- increased competition for water between production systems.
Supply chains will be vulnerable to drought, fire, and floods. Rising temperatures will increase risks to outdoor worker health, and farm biosecurity. At a broader level, these changes will threaten food security by reducing reliable domestic production and increasing reliance on global supply chains (provided they aren’t similarly affected.)
These impacts will have direct economic consequences. Farm revenues will become less predictable, raising financial instability, and land values will likely decline as climate exposure is factored into investment decisions.
Australian farmers have adapted to recent climate shifts through technology, changes in practices, and cropping migration. But these measures have not fully offset climate impacts. ABARES estimates that seasonal changes over 2001–20 reduced annual average farm profits by 23% or around AUD $29,200 per farm. Projected wheat yields have fallen around 27% since 1990, from 4.4 to 3.2 tonnes per hectare, and the risk of very low farm returns has doubled since 2000, rising from a 1 in 10 to more than 1 in 5 frequency.
The most severe emissions projections indicate farm profits could fall up to 50% nationally by 2050. But this is also an opportunity: by prioritising innovation, research, and climate-smart practices, Australian agriculture can lead the world in resilient, productive, and profitable farming systems, securing both economic and environmental outcomes.
The way agriculture responds to climate, productivity, and profitability challenges is evolving, and innovation will play a defining role in what comes next. If you’re ready to be part of the solution – whether as a producer, founder, investor, policymaker, or industry leader – evokeᴬᴳ⋅ 2026 is where the conversation continues.
evokeᴬᴳ⋅ 2026 will be held on Tuesday, 17 February and Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre. evokeᴬᴳ⋅ is powered by AgriFutures Australia and funded by the Australian Government, Platinum Partner Elders, and Host State Partner, Agriculture Victoria.
Tickets are now on sale at evokeag.com
